United Political Debate

[Joep]

I've heard over and over about how we have an energy problem because "we haven't built a new refinery in 30 years, it's refinery capacity that's the problem". Well, if it's the refinery capacity that's the problem, it must be increased refinery capacity! According to statistics at the Energy Information Agency, refinery capacity has increased in this country for the last 15 years. Here's a graph:



As you can see, refinery capacity has increased by almost 2 million barrels per day since 1990, or 13%. So the next time you hear someone claiming it's refinery capacity that's the problem, ask them why increased refinery capacity should cause an energy crunch.

[Vaipen]

On the Dutch peak oil forums this has been discussed. I don't know if they saw this graph. I thought to understand that PO is also a problem due to lack in refining capacity as well as lack of oil rigs and facilitating equipment and that that is the problem. And all that production capacity is a problem NEXT to declining oil production rates all over. So yes they may increase the output of a field using technology like in jecting water and what not but that won't push the output easily over the top, it is more like maintaining a while longer the top of the peak.
And the oil that you get needs more refining. And so you need to invest a lot in refinement capacity, that is able to make fuels and stuff from the watereed down sulphur containing worst of the oil they pump up.

Propbably a good old 1980's hydrocarboncracker won't do the job well?

[Joep]

They probably haven't seen the graph, since I made it in Excel from this data. You can only refine the crude you have, and the biggest problem is most refineries expect light, sweet crude, and all the newer oil is heavy and/or sour as this graph shows: (note: As API gravity goes down, the oil is heavier)


If you maintain output with water injection and other tertiary methods, you generally cause the decline to be that much more swift and unexpected when it happens. Like what happened to Great Britain:


And basically, why would you build a refinery in a country who's crude output is declining?

[Vaipen]

So, in a way, refining IS the problem

[Joep]

Using oil (or coal or natural gas) is the problem.

It's the Roman-European resource draw-down culture that's now in severe overshoot that the problem.

[Vaipen]

Maybe so.
In the meantime on the Dutch forum they call your graphs childish compared to the Oil Drum ones.

Thye think that the harder is is to understand a graph, the better it is! It is exactly the other way around but alas!

[Joep]

Where's their graphs, the snooty Dutch critics?

I see you're not the only self-righteous Dutchman around.

Some TOD graphs are more complex, and some are just as easy to understand as mine. Just goes to show, you can't please everybody, so just concentrate on pleasing your self.

I think my graphs are cool. People at peakoil.com thought so too.

[Vaipen]

I stood up for you and hard.
One said they beleived much information from Wolf at the Door was outdated and tha it was too simple. Well braindead motherfuckers, that is what the sitre is for, not to overwhelm but to show noobsw what PO is about.
The admins banned 600 spammers and one honest guiy and NOONE has the courage to track him down and get him back.
And in a forum on climate change, that I proposed, some asshole said about my new thread on ecological footprint that it didn't belong there because it was a level higher than...what! What exactly.

Such buillshit.

I copied your post. I like your grpahs too. And what do they do? They look down on them!

[Joep]

How about that, even Europeans are in denial. OPEC said they were "cutting" production in February today. I think Mother Nature is cutting their production for them.

We'll see what happens.

[Vaipen]

I am getting tired of that forum. The admin, who is busy preparing for a congress and busy setting up some shady business he doesn't want toe reval anything aout except it has to do with delivering stuff to people, who comes along now and then to check on things decided that a topic like 'ecological footprint' should not be in the forum 'vlimate change' but in 'Free Discussion' because it dels about genewral human behavior.

Now how imbecile can you be not to ...nah...you kknow it.

Getting real titred. Just now. a topic ;C.limate-change Expert wanted'. Smeone is telling me that he is gladI am nota scientist because I show that in the accademic world people are backstabbers. This is about 10% who disagree with human impact in vlimate change and who say we aren't to blame. I compared it with my gf who had breast cancer and according to the doctors had a 1 in 10 chance for such a tumor to go away!

I said mya ss 10% That is nothing. And I get that as a reply. I gibve extra arguments like Anthony West, geologist who says to Egyptologists that the watering marks omn the Sphinx are vertical and the last time it rained to cause such patterns was 18.000 years ago. And who was decapitated accademically by egyptoligists wo have vested interests in their theories.

He doesn't understand!

If you are always on the winnign team you don;'t realize how hard that business is. But ask Von Däniken or Graham hancock and Robert Bauval or Sitchin and they'll tell you how quickly your reputation as a seriosu reseracher is actively flushed away.

people are dumb Joe. real dumb. If you are on the other side you see this, if you are the underdog believing in the paleo-Seti theory.

So dumb.

[Joep]